Collecting a profound NHL list takes difficult work and persistence. The method of tearing down a program and revamping the bunch through the draft, exchanges and free office takes time.
The Toronto Maple Leafs 2025 playoff roster took a few a long time to require shape. Their center bunch – Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Auston Matthews and John Tavares – given a establishment the organization trusted would fight for a championship. But it hasn’t worked and the time has come to rotate in a distinctive direction.
The Leafs haven’t misplaced within the playoffs because they’ve needed ability players. They’ve misplaced since they haven’t found the right combination of “skill and will”. Their overcome this year against the protecting winner Florida Jaguars advance emphasized that the Leafs require more players who are willing and able to alter to the way the diversion is played within the Stanley Container playoffs.
The great news is that we learned in this year’s overcome that Toronto does have an rising homegrown ability who epitomizes precisely the kind of player required to win recreations at the hardest time of the year.
Matthew Knies has made a solid case why he ought to be part of anything the Leafs’ unused center will be from here.
Power Forward Identity
It’s early in his career, but Knies is demonstrating to be a uncommon breed in NHL circles. He’s a control forward who can be conveyed in all circumstances. He contributes offense at indeed quality and on the man advantage. And he applies his physical will on adversaries to open up space for himself and his linemates.
Knies took a enormous step in his moment NHL season, scoring 29 objectives and 58 focuses in 78 recreations. He found the middle value of 18:
30 of ice time per diversion, took 152 shots and conveyed 181 hits. It’s worth noticing that as it were three other players within the NHL scored more than 25 objectives and dished out more than 180 hits this season — Tom Wilson (33/233), Brady Tkachuk (29/228) and Vincent Trocheck (26/214).
Knies finished up averaging 2.32 hits and 0.74 focuses per amusement amid the normal season.
What I truly appreciate around Knies is that his diversion doesn’t alter much come playoffs. It’s by and large more difficult to score within the post-season, but he still found the middle value of 0.53 focuses per amusement whereas his physical approach didn’t drop off at all compared to the customary season. Knies found the middle value of 2.38 hits per amusement versus Ottawa and Florida.
Player Comparables
Knies is fair 22 (turning 23 in October) and recorded at 6-foot-3, 227 pounds, which makes it troublesome to discover an correct comparison to coordinate him with.
• Trocheck is 31 and stands 5-foot-11, 188 pounds, whereas Wilson is additionally 31, but stands 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds. Brady Tkachuk is closer in age (25) conjointly recorded at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds.
• Knies is the as it were NHL player who scored more than 25 objectives, dished out 180 hits and is beneath the age of 25.
The next-closest player — and he’s not faraway off — is Unused York Officers forward Will Cuylle who’s 23 a long time ancient additionally an RFA this summer. Cuylle’s amusement is trending up as well and, like Knies, he’s a modest bunch to play against. Cuylle found the middle value of 15:
04 of ice time and was conveyed in all circumstances this past season. He created 20G-25A and dished out the fifth-most hits within the alliance (300). He’s recorded at 6-foot-3, 212 pounds.
The foot line is there aren’t numerous players within the NHL who bring the combination of measure, expertise and physicality that Knies does to the Maple Leafs.
Contract Status
If unsigned by July 1, Knies will be a restricted free agent. His qualifying offer is set at $874,500. It’s going to be interesting to see how things unfold between Knies and Leafs management regarding his extension.
Keeping in mind the salary cap is set to rise significantly, which will obviously drive up the cost of doing business across the league, here’s a look at what some other players signed for after their entry-level deals expired:
• Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens: $7.85M x 8 years. Expires 2031.
• Juraj Slafkovsky, Montreal Canadiens: $7.6M x 8 years. Expires 2033.
• Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild: $7.0M x 8 years. Expires 2030.
Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild: $7.0M x 8 years. Expires 2030.
• Matt Coronato, Calgary Flames: $6.5M x 7 years. Expires 2032.
• Quinton Byfield, LA Kings: $6.25M x 5 years. Expires 2029.
The players listed above play different roles for their teams than Knies does for the Leafs. Caufield and Slafkovsky, for example, don’t kill penalties while Boldy saw his role increase in the playoffs to include all situations.
The closest comparison, role-wise, is Byfield who averaged 18:37 of ice time while being used in all situations and producing 23G-31A. An area of Byfield’s game that pales in comparison to Knies, despite being listed at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, is his physical play. Byfield was only credited with 80 hits this season.
It’s at this point of my exercise that I ask how much value do you put on what Knies brings to the Leafs roster in comparison to these player examples I’ve provided?
My feeling is Knies is every bit as important to Toronto as Caufield and Slafkovsky are to Montreal. The fact he also kills penalties and can be trusted in key matchups defensively brings even more value to the negotiation table.
With the salary cap rising in the coming years, and my belief that Knies has real potential to become 35-goal scorer while continuing to play a power game, I’d be willing to offer him an eight-year extension that carries an AAV of $8.5 million. I have very little concern about the contract aging poorly. He would only be 30 years old when it expires, which would leave plenty of runway for him to cash in on another lucrative contract when he’s a veteran.
The Leafs have the cap space this off-season to allocate those dollars for Knies and, in my opinion, he should be their biggest priority to lock up. According to Puckpedia.com Toronto has $25.71 million in cap space this summer, without Tavares or Marner under contract. Signing Knies to what I’ve suggested would still leave $17.21 million for Toronto to spend on other players.
Offer Sheet?
Several NHL executives, including Jeff Gorton from the Canadiens, have recently stated they believe it’s a real possibility that teams will look to utilize offer sheets after the St. Louis Blues found success doing so on Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg last year.
Knies would be eligible to receive one, but I don’t see the Leafs being backed into a corner by a competing team. The Oilers had limited cap space last summer and had already spent money on a number of UFAs. The Leafs have the cap space to make sure it doesn’t happen to them with Knies. But to keep the flexibility they need to adjust the roster in other places through free agency or trade this summer, they should sign Knies quickly and not risk an offer sheet coming at all.
Conversely, I could see a team trying sign Cuylle to an offer sheet that would make things difficult on the Rangers to match unless they are able to dump a significant amount of salary ahead of free agency. As of today, New York only has $8.4 million in available space to work with and they have to sign Cuylle, defenceman K’Andre Miller and forward Matt Rempe, amongst other restricted free agents on their roster.
The worst outcome for the Leafs would be putting Knies on the back-burner, letting his RFA status carry into July and start addressing other roster needs in the meantime. That could put them on a path similar to last year’s Oilers, where an ambitious team could swoop in with an offer sheet higher than $8.5 million to make things uncomfortable for Toronto.
As a reminder, here are the compensation thresholds for 2025:
OFFER SHEET AAV
COMPENSATION
$1,544,424 or less
None
Over $1,544,424 to $2,340,037
Third-round pick
Over $2,340,037 to $4,680,076
Second-round pick
Over $4,680,076 to $7,020,113
First- and third-round picks
Over $7,020,113 to $9,360,153
First-, second-, and third-round picks
Over $9,360,153 to $11,700,192
Two firsts, one second and one third
Over $11,700,192
Four first-round picks
Knies is exactly the type of player Toronto needs to eventually get over the hump. He’s a unique talent who’s already a proven NHL power forward and still getting better.
The Leafs are facing a difficult off-season, no doubt, and have difficult pathways to navigate if they’re to come back stronger next season. But getting Knies signed to a new deal should be their primary focus.
